Who benefits? That’s always the question that matters in politics. This week, in the case of the briefings against Keir Starmer and the suggestion that Wes Streeting is preparing a leadership challenge, it is neither the prime minister nor the health secretary.
The decision by somebody in No 10 to create a circular firing squad within the cabinet around Starmer is a sign both of growing paranoia and a lack of political grip. It is utterly self-defeating and another example of the trivialisation of politics at the centre of power. As Streeting – out on the media round for a long-arranged announcement about the NHS – put it, they have been “watching too much Celebrity Traitors”.
He insisted it was “water off a duck’s back” for him personally, but he is not the first victim of the Downing Street political assassins. The health secretary described a “toxic” culture in No 10. “I’m afraid this sort of briefing is not unknown in politics,” he said. “In fact, I think about some of my cabinet colleagues who have been briefed against – Angela Rayner, Lucy Powell, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy – at least they’re picking on one of the blokes this time. So I admire their commitment to gender equality. What I can tell you is that this doesn’t reflect the prime minister’s style of leadership or his view.”
Certainly this was not part of some deliberate Downing Street plan to destabilise the government just two weeks before the budget. It may be more cock-up than conspiracy. One Downing Street source insisted that No 10 had for days been giving the “factual response” to journalists asking about a hypothetical leadership challenge that Starmer would “fight it” rather than resign. “Suddenly, it went from a comment point to the front page,” the insider said. “It’s a silly frenzy that will probably blow itself out as quickly as it caught fire.”
That may be wishful thinking, but it is not right either to suggest that the health secretary – whatever his long-term leadership ambitions – is actively plotting against the prime minister. “These claims are categorically untrue,” a spokesperson for Streeting said. “Wes’s focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life.”
Dozens of backbenchers are sitting on tiny majorities and are reluctant to defend yet more unpalatable decisions to disillusioned voters
The truth is that the frenzy of headlines reflects a genuine concern among Labour MPs, including ministers, about their party’s position in the polls and the prime minister’s unpopularity.
Dozens of backbenchers are sitting on tiny majorities and are reluctant to defend yet more unpalatable decisions to disillusioned voters. Many won their seats for the first time at the last election and have never experienced hostility on the doorstep until now. They worry for their own jobs, even if the next general election is several years away. There is a frustration that goes up to cabinet level about the No 10 operation. The election of Powell as Labour’s deputy leader was an indication of the wider discontent in the party.
There is also a “wobble” in Downing Street about the reaction on the Labour benches to the expected rise in income tax in the budget and the implication for Starmer’s leadership. The likely decision to scrap the two-child benefit cap is a sign of nervousness about the political consequences of the statement on 26 November for the prime minister and the chancellor. “There’s a sense that the PLP [parliamentary Labour Party] is in a dangerous place,” said one senior figure. “The No 10 strategists look at what happened on winter fuel allowance and the welfare revolt, and they’re worried. The truth is the parliamentary majority is too big. People think it doesn’t matter if they rebel.”
The mood at Westminster is febrile. A leader who promised to bring stability and to make politics tread “a little more lightly” on our lives is now surrounded by people stomping around in hobnail boots. As one cabinet minister said: “There’s a mild hysteria in the news about everything at the moment. It’s like looking down the telescope the wrong way, and that mood is sweeping over the government.”
But the fundamental truth remains that Labour leadership contest rules mean that 81 MPs would have to unite behind a rival leadership candidate to trigger a challenge to Starmer. That is a high bar in a party in which multiple factions will find it difficult to come together against a common enemy.
The prime minister is probably safe for now, but the latest leadership speculation is symptomatic of a deeper crisis at the heart of the government.
Starmer has still not been able to communicate the driving purpose of his premiership. The political atmosphere is toxic and the trade-offs are becoming more difficult ahead of a painful tax-raising budget. “The fundamental argument,” said one Starmer loyalist, “is do you do what’s right for the country or what’s palatable to the parliamentary Labour party.”
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