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Roberto Vannacci, a polarising Italian MEP and former general, has launched his own party after breaking away from the far-right League, which is a key part of Giorgia Meloni’s coalition.
So what? This could presage similar splinters in France, the UK and other European countries. Meloni won power in 2022, saying “yes to secure borders, no to mass migration”. But in office she has tacked towards the centre, especially on foreign policy, which has
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angered her more extreme political allies;
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opened up the right of Italian politics; and
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threatened to destabilise her broad coalition.
Out of nowhere. Vannacci was a political unknown until 2023, when he self-published a book that called gay people “not normal” and embraced a racist conspiracy theory that there is a campaign to replace whites with non-whites. The World Upside Down was a bestseller and led to Vannacci’s suspension from the military, where he served in Africa and the Middle East.
Right-wing rockstar. Matteo Salvini parachuted him into the League the following year. Vannucci energised its European election campaign and became a leading light on Italy’s far right, helping to revive a party that had lost a large part of its base to Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.
Fracture. Relations soured after Vannacci began questioning the party line on Ukraine, holding his own events and building a series of committees named after his book. The power struggle between the two men pitted the party’s moderates against an extremist wing.
At the seams. Vannacci has suggested that Black people cannot be Italian and described the dictator Benito Mussolini as a “statesman”. His decision to create his own party, National Future, has prompted speculation that the League could splinter and disintegrate.
Political calculus. This creates a headache for Meloni, whose fragile coalition relies on the League. Pollsters predict that 2% of voters would back Vannucci’s new party. This is lower than the threshold required to enter parliament but may be enough to fragment the right and give the centre-left a fighting chance at next year’s elections.
Balancing act. Giorgia Meloni has spent her time in office trying to neutralise fears about her political roots in Italy’s post-fascist far right. Despite maintaining a hardline on immigration and trending right on cultural issues, she has positioned herself as a reliable Atlanticist, committed to Nato, the EU and Ukraine. This approach has reassured markets and Italy’s allies.
Opportunity knocks. But some of her radical supporters feel abandoned by her pragmatism. Vannacci has targeted this group by presenting himself as the uncompromising alternative to Meloni. He has said “my right is not moderate” but “true, coherent, nationalist, strong, proud, convinced, enthusiastic, pure and contagious”.
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Across the border. There are parallels between Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and National Rally, the far-right outfit leading French polls. Under Jordan Bardella, it has worked hard to shake off its reputation for antisemitism. Like Meloni’s party, it has also toned down its Euroscepticism and moderated its stance on Ukraine to appeal to voters in the middle.
Looking ahead. But if National Rally wins France’s presidential election in 2027, it may be vulnerable to challengers in the mould of Vannacci. The same could be said of Reform UK.
What’s more... The impact of Vannacci’s new party remains to be seen, but could perversely represent a glimmer of hope for dyed-in-the wool centrists. The far right is adept at picking up protest votes. But holding a broad coalition together in government is another matter.
Photograph by Massimo Di Vita/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images