Ukraine said a "common understanding” had been reached with the US on a peace plan, while the White House has suggested a deal is close.
So what? This doesn’t mean it will be a good one. Nobody wants to end the war more than Kyiv, but an initial peace plan supported by the US was widely seen as capitulation. European allies have revised the proposal at high-level emergency talks, but the new agreement
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may not be accepted by Moscow;
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is thought to leave the hardest issues unresolved; and
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risks rushing decisions in the effort to meet Trump’s tight deadline.
Good for Moscow. The original 28-point plan was reportedly drawn up last month by Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy, and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy. According to leaks, it calls on Ukraine to withdraw from cities it controls in the eastern Donbas, limit the size of its army and not join Nato. It also asks for Russian to be recognised as an official language and for a war crimes amnesty.
Turning the screw. The plan looked to many like surrender terms, made worse when Trump gave Volodymyr Zelensky days to agree or face the withdrawal of US intelligence and weapons.
No can do. Kyiv, as well as Europe, which aside from Ukraine has the most to lose, demurred and warned against any deal that undermines the country’s sovereignty.
Another go. Ukrainian and European officials have since revised the plan, removing some of Russia’s maximalist demands and trimming the draft to 19 points after hours of emergency talks in Switzerland on Sunday and Monday. The US and Ukrainian teams agreed on some issues, but left the most contentious points for Trump and Zelensky to decide.
Ready or not. Zelensky’s aides have indicated that he is keen to travel to see Trump “before the end of November” which is Sunday, but the US president said he will only meet him or Putin when a deal is in the final stages.
Tick tock. As tomorrow’s deadline looms, Europe has warned that a peace agreement cannot be done in a hurry. The position outlined by the EU commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen, is that any deal needs to ensure
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there are no limitations to Ukraine’s army that leave the country vulnerable;
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the borders of Ukraine cannot be changed by force; and
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Europe is central to securing the peace.
Digging its heels. Moscow has indicated it will reject the counter-proposal. On Tuesday, army secretary Dan Driscoll headed to Abu Dhabi for talks with Russian officials that the US said aimed to lay the groundwork for higher-level engagements in the future. Driscoll was also expected to meet Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine’s defence intelligence.
Battle weary. Last week a drone and missile strike killed 34 people in an apartment block in the Ukrainian city of Ternopil. A further seven people were killed in Kyiv in the early hours of Tuesday. Ukraine continues to target Russian infrastructure.
Of the essence. Kyiv needs a ceasefire fast. It is struggling to finance the war and Ukrainian forces are stretched thin with low morale at the front. Russia’s economy is also in a poor condition and its battlefield losses are high, but Putin appears to be happy to keep fighting.
What’s more... Russian troops are pushing to capture strategic cities in the east and slowly advancing in other areas such as Zaporizhzhia, while Moscow has also stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. A fourth winter is approaching in this long war.
Photograph by Ozan Kose/ AFP via Getty Images