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The US and Iran are closer than ever to a return to war, with the two countries trading tit-for-tat strikes over the last week.
So what? This scenario has been predicted from the moment the US and Iran announced their ‘memorandum of understanding’ (MoU) in June. There have been several rounds of retaliatory attacks since the agreement was signed, but the latest are the most serious yet. They
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centre on the Strait of Hormuz;
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have stunted tanker traffic in the Gulf; and
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will be difficult to defuse.
Hard sell. Donald Trump hailed the MoU as an historic document that would reshape the Middle East and end decades of tensions with Iran. In fact, it was a temporary fix that deferred difficult issues and focused on restarting Gulf oil shipping as quickly as possible.
The deal failed to achieve even this. Iran and the US are at loggerheads over paragraph five of the deal, a vital but vaguely worded passage that leaves a lot open to interpretation.
It says that Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels” through the waterway, toll-free for 60 days. It then states that Iran will hold a dialogue with Oman “to define the future administration and maritime services”, without any mention of US security guarantees for civilian ships.
Green light. Iran believes this formulation allows it to continue regulating shipping flows, and it has ordered commercial vessels to use a predetermined route that hugs its coastline.
But Gulf nations have preferred to take a southern route in Omani waters established by the US military, which has covertly guided ships through the strait. The initiative helped to restore oil flows to more than half their prewar levels, sparking anger in Tehran.
Spark. The current violence began when Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps fired on three ships, including a liquefied natural gas tanker linked to Qatar, along the southern route. In response, Trump ordered retaliatory strikes and reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
Things escalated over the weekend, with the US striking 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday after Iran fired on another vessel. American installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan were targeted by Iranian drones and missiles, attacks that continued into Monday.
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War of words. In the past week, Trump has
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declared the ceasefire “over”;
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called Iran’s leaders “scum” and “sick people”; and
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threatened to destroy Iranian desalination plants.
Iran, meanwhile, has
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called for vengeance over the death of its supreme leader;
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declared the Strait of Hormuz closed; and
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threatened to renew attacks on the infrastructure of Gulf countries.
Last night, Iran said it struck two UAE tankers in the Strait with cruise missiles, reportedly killing one. The UAE called the strike “brazen”, and said it had the “full right to respond” with “all necessary measures”.
Sitting at anchor. Tanker traffic plummeted by more than 50% on the weekend, with just 14 ships passing the strait on Sunday – the lowest level in a month, according to maritime trackers. The price of oil, which had come down to pre-war levels, is climbing up again.
It is hard to see how the deadlock can be broken. The Trump administration has offered Iran financial rewards if it makes peace, in the form of sanctions relief and reconstruction funds. But the regime’s chief concern is security – and it now sees its control over the Strait of Hormuz as its key point of leverage, one that surpasses the importance of its battered nuclear programme.
What’s more… Yesterday Trump said the US would reimpose its blockade on Iranian ports and charge a 20% toll on Gulf shipping to cover “costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security”. Iran’s foreign minister responded that his country would offer a cheaper rate.
Photograph by Mohammed Huwais/AFP via Getty Images