This article first appeared as part of the Daily Sensemaker newsletter – one story a day to make sense of the world. To receive it in your inbox, featuring content exclusive to the newsletter, sign up for free here.
Pope Leo has condemned leaders who spend billions of dollars on wars and use religion to justify military action. He added that the world is “ravaged by a handful of tyrants”.
So what? There are no prizes for guessing his intended audience. The pope has spent the past week commenting indirectly on Donald Trump, who is angry at the pontiff’s condemnation of the conflict in Iran. It is another war of choice for the US president that may backfire, considering
•
the pope shows no sign of backing down;
•
attacks on the pontiff play badly with American Catholics; and
•
Trump’s popularity among this group is already waning ahead of the midterms.
Woke Pope. Parts of the Maga movement have been gunning for Leo since he became head of the Catholic Church. Laura Loomer, a right-wing influencer, called him “anti-Trump” and “a total Marxist”. Steve Bannon described him as the “worst pick for Maga Catholics”.
Vicar of Christ. This didn’t deter the pope from criticising Trump’s immigration actions as “inhuman” in October. He has become more outspoken since the US and Israel attacked Iran, a war that Trump administration officials have framed as a religious undertaking. This month the pope decried the “delusion of omnipotence” that leads to wars. Quoting the Bible, he said that God ignores the prayers of leaders whose “hands are full of blood”.
Papal politics. It is not unusual for popes to weigh in on world affairs. Pope Francis, for example, condemned the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as the possession of nuclear weapons. Ahead of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Pope John Paul declared “NO TO WAR!” Pope Leo is continuing this tradition by making peace a central theme of his tenure.
A key difference is that the message has more purchase coming from the first American head of the Catholic Church. Pope Francis cut a culturally distant figure in the US as an Argentine ensconced in Rome who carried moral heft but spoke halting English. Pope Leo comes from Chicago and regularly posts about baseball on social media. He cannot be dismissed so easily.
Major hater. This hasn’t stopped Trump from trying. This week he said he is “not a fan” of Pope Leo and called him “weak on crime”. He also posted an image, apparently generated by AI, depicting himself as a robed, Christ-like figure healing a sick man. This is, in some ways, a 2026 version of past power struggles between popes and medieval emperors.
My mistake. Trump later deleted the post and said he thought the image showed him as a doctor. It was a rare climbdown, but the president refused to apologise. Even Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, one of Trump’s closest allies, described his remarks about the pope as “unacceptable”.
Fading demographic. Trump won 59% of the Catholic vote in 2024, up from 52% in 2016. Polling done before his comments about the pope already indicated that most Catholics believe Trump is doing a bad job as president.
Faded. This won’t improve now. The pope has a +34 net favourability rating among US registered voters, while Trump’s rating is underwater at -15. Several Catholic and evangelical allies of Trump have denounced his Jesus meme as blasphemous.
What’s more… Catholics make up 20% of the US adult population. They have backed every successful US presidential candidate since 2004.
Photograph by Vatican Pool / Getty Images
Newsletters
Choose the newsletters you want to receive
View more
For information about how The Observer protects your data, read our Privacy Policy