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Mexico has experienced days of unrest after the military killed El Mencho, a notorious drug lord, in a dawn raid at the weekend.
So what? The violence has calmed but may not be over. The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is the leading cartel in the country, which makes the removal of its leader the most important operation against organised crime in Mexico for years. But decapitating the group could have unpredictable effects, even if it
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buys goodwill in Washington;
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reduces the likelihood of US strikes on Mexican soil; and
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marks a personal coup for the left-wing president Claudia Sheinbaum.
The cartel. CJNG is a global organisation that traffics people, guns, wildlife and drugs around the world. Within Mexico it acts with fearsome firepower. It downed an army helicopter with a rocket-propelled grenade during a previous attempt to capture El Mencho, and has been accused of multiple assassinations.
The boss. Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, better known as El Mencho, was a 59-year-old former police officer who founded CJNG around 2009, before turning it into Mexico’s predominant crime group. Unlike others in the underworld, he kept a low profile. Few photos of him exist and he was often rumoured to be dead. Court documents claim that he ordered the murders of more than 100 people, while he also helped start the fentanyl crisis in the US.
Dangerous liaison. The Mexican army found El Mencho’s mountain hideout in the state of Jalisco by tracking one of his romantic partners. With the help of US intelligence, the military encircled El Mencho and swept into action. His men opened fire, but the drug lord was fatally wounded. Seven of his accomplices also died, while two soldiers were injured.
A peace offering. The White House designated CJNG a foreign terrorist organisation last year and has pushed the Mexican government to go after cartels more aggressively. As part of this pressure campaign, Trump has even threatened military strikes on Mexican soil. Sheinbaum had her own reasons to act, but the operation will go down well in Washington.
A piece of good timing. There may also be an economic motive to get back in Trump’s good books: the United States Mexico Canada trade agreement is being reviewed this summer.
Fire and fury. But taking out a figure like El Mencho was never going to be a clean operation. CJNG responded immediately, blocking nearly 100 main roads, torching shops and attacking security forces, mainly in Jalisco. More than 60 people died in the aftermath of El Mencho’s killing. This included 25 soldiers, and one bystander. The purpose was likely twofold: to prevent further government action and to make a show of force. By Monday, the violence had ebbed.
Succession battle. The question now is who replaces El Mencho. Decapitating criminal organisations can cause them to fragment, as lieutenants fight to secure their fiefdoms or take over the lot. Five people, including a stepson of the drug lord, are thought to be in contention. Mexicans will be watching to see if violence resurges, particularly in Guadalajara.
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Unsporting behaviour. Mexico is co-hosting the 2026 Fifa World Cup, with four matches due to take place in Jalisco’s capital. Sheinbaum says there is no risk to visitors, while Fifa’s Gianni Infantino has insisted he has full confidence in Mexico. “It’s going to be spectacular,” he said.
What’s more… Infantino shouldn’t take this as assumed. Equally there is no reason to assume El Mencho’s death will stem the flow of drugs into the US. Where there is demand, there will always be supply.
Photograph by Daniel Cardenas/Anadolu via Getty Images