The direction of British politics hinges on the voters of Makerfield

Photograph by Gary Calton for The Observer

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The residents of Makerfield will vote today in a byelection that could transform British politics.

So what? There has never been a byelection of such importance. A win for Andy Burnham would demonstrate to Labour’s backbenchers that it can beat Reform in its old, ‘red wall’ seats and make Burnham the firm favourite to be the party’s next leader, while victory for Reform would bolster Nigel Farage’s claim to be a prime minister-in-waiting. The race

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  is too close to call;

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  could be decided by tactical voting; and

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  has far higher stakes for Labour than Reform.

The place itself. The Makerfield constituency is a collection of mostly old mining towns and villages on the southern side of Wigan and sandwiched between Liverpool and Manchester. It is in Greater Manchester, which Burnham oversees as mayor. Although there are areas of deprivation, other parts are comfortably middle-class.

Eye of the storm. The constituency became ground zero in the fight for the future of British politics after its Labour MP resigned to give Burnham a shot at returning to Westminster and challenging Keir Starmer for the party’s leadership.

Farage country. Makerfield is the type of place where Reform might normally expect to canter to victory. Although its history is solidly Labour, it voted Leave by a high margin and, since the referendum, Labour’s vote share has slipped. Reform came second in the area in the 2024 general election and steamrolled Labour in last month’s local election.

Local lad. But Burnham is an unusually strong candidate. He hails from this part of south Lancashire, has spent most of his life there and is popular as mayor, a position he has held since 2017. This has dampened criticism that he is using the constituency as a stepping stone. His campaign has been slick and upbeat, underpinned by a promise to “change Labour”.

In the teal corner. Reform, by contrast, struggled to find a good candidate. In the recent byelection in nearby Gorton and Denton, it parachuted in an outsider with a big social media following, who lost badly to the Greens. This time the party has gone hyper-local, putting forward Robert Kenyon, a plumber from Wigan, who also ran in 2024.

Chequered past. Kenyon has struggled to shake off a history of sexist social media posts and has wilted rather than grown in the bright spotlight of a once-in-a-lifetime moment in British politics. His ratings are low, with voters seeing him as inexperienced.

Who is going to win? There have been five polls, two giving Burnham a handy lead and three showing a tight race in which he edges out Kenyon.

Disruptor. Calculations are complicated by the surprising emergence of Restore Britain, a rabidly anti-immigration party set up by Rupert Lowe, who was expelled from Reform last year. Restore could fracture the right-wing vote, handing victory to Burnham. But if enough Restore votes were to swing behind Reform, Burnham and Kenyon would be neck and neck.

The others. The Lib Dems and the Greens are on the ballot paper but not properly contesting the seat, meaning their supporters may back Burnham to keep Reform out. The Conservatives have also sat the contest out. In two weeks of reporting from Makerfield, The Observer has not seen a single election poster or any campaign literature representing the party.

The key question. If Burnham, one of the country’s most popular politicians, cannot beat a weak Reform candidate in his own backyard, which Labour politician can beat them anywhere?

High stakes. With a leadership contest already effectively underway, and with the left and right wings of the party advancing radically different agendas to head off a threat from either the Greens or Reform, a defeat in Makerfield could cause Labour to fall apart.

At the same time… The unique set of circumstances in Makerfield is unlikely to be repeated elsewhere. If Labour believes a win for Burnham will provide a template for defeating Reform, it is hard to see where else it will apply.