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Donald Trump has said Iran wants to make a deal “so badly”, even as Tehran and Tel Aviv continue to exchange strikes.
So what? Trump is keen to appear in control of events when he is not. His war started with maximal ambitions. But Iran has other ideas and immediate blocks on a ceasefire include
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the unreliability of all sides in negotiations;
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the ability of Tehran to withstand military pressure; and
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the relatively low effort it would take for the regime to keep inflicting pain on the west.
Reminder. On Saturday, Trump threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants unless the regime reopened the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipping within 48 hours. Instead of capitulating, Tehran promised to respond by hitting energy facilities and desalination plants in the Gulf.
Sigh of relief. The conflict was poised to enter a dangerous new phase. But Trump postponed the strikes on Monday, just before the US stock market opened. He cited “very good” talks towards a “total resolution” of the conflict. His announcement had an immediate effect. Oil prices fell by 10% and stocks recovered some losses.
Muddied waters. Iran denied it was in negotiations, saying that Trump was merely trying to calm the energy market. It is believed that Washington and Tehran are talking through intermediaries, with the White House having sent a 15-point plan to end the conflict.
Trump’s report card. The US has stated a variety of war aims over the past month. Even as the conflict continues, some early assessments can be made about their success.
End of the regime. On 28 February, Trump urged the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the Islamic Republic. He told the Revolutionary Guard and military to lay down their weapons.
New face, same regime. Despite Israel assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, his injured son was quickly installed to replace him. Many other high-ranking officials have been killed, but the regime is intact and hardliners have consolidated control. Perhaps cowed by January’s deadly protests, there have been few signs of a popular uprising.
End of threat. Another US objective is to eliminate Iran’s ability to menace its neighbours and American interests in the Middle East. Trump cited “imminent threats” from the regime.
Reminder of threat. The Trump administration says it has reduced Iranian missile launches by 90% and drone attacks by 95%, but it is not clear whether Tehran is preserving stocks. In the past week it has struck Qatar’s main liquefied natural gas plant and the Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad. There are concerns that Gulf states could soon run out of interceptors. One plus for the west is that the conflict may have alienated Iran from its neighbours.
End of nuclear. On 28 February, Trump said in no uncertain terms that the regime could “never have nuclear weapons”. Before the conflict began, there were intense negotiations over a new agreement that could have limited Iran’s ambitions.
Nuclear unknown. British diplomats who attended talks between the US and Iran on the eve of the war thought this deal could have been reached without aggression. Despite subsequent attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, 440kg of enriched uranium remains at large. Tehran may now feel that there is an even greater imperative to build a bomb, although Trump claimed yesterday that Iran had agreed “never” to have a nuclear weapon.
New goal. One of the White House’s major aims is to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure has stopped the flow of 20% of the world’s oil supply and caused havoc in global markets.
Own goal. Hormuz was open before the conflict began. Even if ships start moving again soon, the strait has shown its worth to Iran as leverage in future negotiations and a potential source of revenue. Tehran has reportedly started charging ships as much as $2m for safe passage.
Asymmetric aims. It is easy for the Iranian regime to declare victory. All it has to do is survive.
What’s more… So far, it has survived.
Photograph by Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images
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