Two elections underscore how unpopular Keir Starmer is

Keir Starmer has endured two elections that underscore how unpopular he is with the country.

So what? Labour MPs are not sure he has got the message. The prime minister has repeatedly changed personnel around him without any sign of improvement. Now he has a deputy leader who could make life even more difficult. On Saturday, Lucy Powell won the race to succeed Angela Rayner. This means she will

• sit in political cabinet meetings but not the Cabinet itself, retaining her independence;
• tell Number 10 (and journalists) what she is hearing from aggrieved backbenchers; and
• act as a rival powerbase if she chooses.

Just good friends. Powell beat her rival Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary seen as Starmer’s preferred choice, with 54 per cent of the vote. Although Powell is from the left of the party, her supporters were quick to say she won’t be trouble. “She’s not doing that so she can be an external critic,” one said. “She was clear through the campaign and in her speech that she is an ally for the PM, and wants to help improve things.”

But the risk is clear. Powell’s election, one backbencher says, is “proof that they don't have control of the party and that they are going to have to bring her in”. The same MP stresses that Powell is a “team player so she’ll be constructive”, but notes that with no mechanism for her to be sacked, she will not be constrained by collective responsibility.

Other problems. The deputy leadership race was not the only one last week that should trouble Number 10. A by-election in Caerphilly saw a huge swing away from Labour, which has held the Senedd seat since its creation in 1999, resulting in a victory for Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle. Although Labour had been expected to lose, one junior minister described the party picking up just 11 per cent of the vote as “apocalyptic”.

Silver lining. Reform thought they had the election sewn up but came second. One Labour MP said they “were swanning around as if they had won it before polling day [so] were taken aghast”. This highlights the rise of tactical voting to stop Reform, and the possibility that a progressive alliance could yet save Labour.

Polling by Public First and Stonehaven Global, published in The Observer last month, suggested that with “high levels of tactical voting” at the next general election, the incumbents could cling on to power and deny Reform a victory.

Marathon not a sprint. Four years out from such a scenario, even disgruntled disgruntled Labour MPs are reluctant to entertain this possibility. “Caerphilly shows were in a fight for our lives, to the left as much as the right, and we need to take that as seriously as Reform,” a backbencher says. “It is retrievable but they have to change direction with the culture of the party and economic direction at the budget.”

Down dogs. Another minister was less optimistic: “It’s brutal and we all desperately need this to be a huge wake up call and dose of reality – but I doubt it will be.”

What’s more… Allies of the Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who has leadership ambitions of his own, are already briefing that “May is the plan” for his return to parliament. His rise is anything but inexorable but infighting helps no one. Not least the prime minister.

Photograph by Lucy North/PA Wire