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Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, has launched an aggressive campaign against Ukraine ahead of a pivotal election.
So what? The plan isn’t working in Hungary, but could affect Kyiv’s ability to defend itself. During his 16 years in power, Orbán has hobbled the courts, civil society and the media to build an “illiberal state” within the EU. But with five weeks left before the vote, his Fidesz party is trailing in the polls. To preserve his political skin, Orbán has
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accused Ukraine of imposing an “oil blockade” on Hungary;
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alleged that it is planning other acts of sabotage; and
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blocked a €90bn EU loan to Kyiv and threatened to veto sanctions on Moscow.
Finger point. Orbán’s government claims that Ukraine has deliberately halted the flow of oil in the Druzhba pipeline “in coordination with Brussels and the Hungarian opposition” to harm Fidesz’s chances of re-election. The pipeline, which runs from Russia to Hungary through Ukraine, has been out of action since 27 January.
Not us. Ukraine says the pipeline was struck by a Russian drone and that attempts to repair it were thwarted by further attacks. This has not stopped Orbán from alleging, without evidence, that Ukraine is “preparing further actions to disrupt the operation of Hungary’s energy system”.
End game. Orbán has seemingly manufactured a national emergency by which he presents himself as the only person who can guarantee Hungary’s security and independence, while casting his rival as a traitor in thrall to Kyiv and Brussels.
Insurgent. This rival is Péter Magyar, a charismatic centre-right defector from Fidesz, whose ex-wife served as Orbán’s justice minister. He is campaigning on an anti-corruption platform. Magyar has promised to improve public services and rebuild relations with the EU.
Rearguard. Orbán claims that Magyar’s Tisza party will bankrupt the country by supporting Ukraine and sending Hungarian youths to die there. The message is not landing. Magyar’s Tisza party has a 9% lead over Fidesz, according to one poll tracker.
Black sheep. Orbán has close ties with the Kremlin. Ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he said it was difficult to know who had started the war and described the European bloc as a bigger threat than Moscow.
Point of leverage. Orbán has promised to block a €90bn loan to Kyiv until the Druzhba pipeline is restored, forcing the EU to look for ways to circumvent Budapest’s veto. “We have often had to deal with Hungary’s resistance to certain decisions, but in the end, we always found a way forward,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, the European economic commissioner. An EU official said that Orbán is acting obstructively in Europe “with elections in mind”.
Uneven playing field. Gerrymandering has tilted the scales in Orbán’s favour. Fidesz received 54% of the vote in the last general election but won 68% of the seats. Polling experts predict that Tisza would need to win by at least 3% to claim victory.
What’s more… Ukraine needs its loan as soon as possible if it wants to be in a strong position to negotiate with Moscow. Europe may want a Magyar win, but a change of leaders might not remove Hungary as a thorn in its side. Orbán’s rival has ruled out sending weapons to Kyiv.
Photograph by Ferenc Isza/AFP/Getty Images
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