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An Emirati-backed separatist group has seized most of southern Yemen, upending a relatively calm status quo that has prevailed since a 2022 truce paused major fighting.
So what? The country could be split in two for the first time in 35 years. Forces from the Southern Transitional Council swept through Hadramaut and Marah provinces last week, meeting little resistance from troops aligned to Saudi Arabia. This takeover of one half of Yemen
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may rekindle a devastating civil war;
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could pave the way for the region’s secession from the north; and
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is an enormous setback for Saudi Arabia, a decade after it first intervened.
Backdrop. The STC was set up in 2017 with support from the United Arab Emirates. Its key objective is independence for southern Yemen, which was a sovereign state from 1967 to 1990. The area has a distinct identity based on tribal, religious and historical factors.
Uneasy coalition. Since 2022 the STC has been part of Yemen’s internationally recognised government, occupying three of eight seats on the faction-riven leadership council. Although this body enjoys diplomatic legitimacy, it has little real power.
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Coveted asset. Hadramaut is a vast desert region that borders Saudi Arabia and contains most of Yemen’s oil. Earlier this year its wells were seized by Saudi-backed tribal fighters, who cut off supplies. This worsened a deep economic crisis and sparked protests in Aden, seat of the Yemeni government, leading to fears of a military escalation.
Come on in. That escalation came last week when the STC captured Hadramaut in a largely bloodless offensive. The group moved into neighbouring Marah, which borders Oman. Social media clips showed people replacing the national flag of Yemen with southern banners.
Seat of power. The STC also took over the presidential palace in Aden, as Saudi forces withdrew from the city and Yemen’s president, Rashad Al-Alimi, departed for Riyadh.
Sitting pretty. In September the STC chair Aidarous Al-Zubaidi said southern Yemen was ready to announce independence at “any time”. His hand has been strengthened considerably. But a unilateral declaration risks drawing a backlash from Saudi Arabia, which temporarily closed Yemeni airspace on Monday. The most likely path forward is a referendum.
History in motion. The STC’s advances shatter a decade of Saudi security policy. Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen’s civil war a decade ago to oust the Iran-aligned Houthis and maintain its neighbour’s territorial integrity. Because the Houthis still control the northern part of Yemen, the country could be on the cusp of being formally partitioned.
Growing distant. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were once united in efforts to dislodge the Houthis, but their foreign policy platforms are increasingly at odds with each other. The UAE backs the STC because it is keen to secure access to Red Sea trade routes.
Human toll. Yemen is the site of one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters. An estimated 377,000 people have died, mostly from famine and disease, and half of children under five are malnourished. Saudi-led bombing has killed or maimed nearly 20,000 civilians.
Implacable. The Houthis had long demanded a share of Yemen’s oil and gas revenues as part of a final peace settlement. Some analysts believe the STC is bent on preventing the Saudis from offering these concessions. Al-Zubaidi said recently that the best outcome for Yemen is a “two-state solution”, dismissing a political settlement between north and south as impossible.
What’s more… Last week a senior STC official said the group was considering ground strikes against the Houthis. This would send the country back into a full-scale war.