Andy Burnham’s make-or-break choice will either crown him or sink him

It is good for the brand, and great for the ego, to be described as “the king over the water”, the appellation that has been affixed to Andy Burnham for some time now. But here’s the rub. If you ever want to perch your cheeks on the throne for real, rather than merely encourage fantasies that it might happen one day in the hazy future, at some point you have to make a bold move that risks getting your feet wet. Faint heart never won anything important.

His decision, revealed late yesterday afternoon, to put his name forward for the Gorton and Denton byelection is a big one. It has a good chance of being the make-or-break choice of his long career in politics. It could also prove to be a defining moment for Sir Keir Starmer.

The mayor of Manchester had to make his mind up in a hurry, having been put under the cosh by the whirlwind selection process imposed by Starmer loyalists in the Labour machine. But we can safely surmise that he has been thinking about this kind of opportunity for a while. At the Labour conference last September, he provoked the wrath of many ministers by incautiously declaring that Labour MPs were begging him to return to Westminster to challenge the prime minister for his job. His undisguised ambition has been accompanied by interviews in which he has set out the leftish stall he describes as “Manchesterism”. He dropped a brick by complaining that “we’ve got to get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets”.

Lovely thought, were the UK not in debt to the money-lenders to the tune of nearly £3tn. He repeated that triggering phrase in a speech a few days ago, but sought to dispel the impression of Liz Trussery by claiming his “business-friendly socialism” would actually mean “a stronger grip on the national finances”. Whether or not you think his prospectus adds up – and there are plenty of cabinet ministers ready to scoff that he is an opportunistic lightweight – the speech fleshed out some of his manifesto for the premiership.

First, though, he has to get back to Westminster. The Gorton and Denton seat lies in Greater Manchester, conveniently nestling within Mr Burnham’s mayoral bailiwick. In a fair selection contest, he’d surely be right to fancy his chances of being chosen as the Labour candidate. He’s been mayor for nearly nine years and the city has done well on his watch. How much of that is genuinely down to him is up for debate, but he's a popular figure in Manchester – a feat all the more noteworthy when he’s a Scouser. He’s got a favourability rating in the north-west of around +20. His national net approval rating has recently fluctuated between a neutral zero and +7. That sounds modest, but it looks awesome compared with Sir Keir, who languishes on a rating of -57. For what it’s worth, the bookies have him as favourite to be the next Labour leader.

Ask the current one and Sir Keir responds: “Andy Burnham is doing an excellent job as mayor of Manchester,” a line that combines blandness with menace. The prime minister’s allies have been busy asserting that they’ll simply block his rival’s path back to Westminster. A recent rule change – known to some wags as “the Burnham clause” – requires directly elected mayors to seek the approval of the party’s governing body, the national executive committee (NEC), if they want to stand for parliament. Starmer loyalists claim to have sufficient control over the party’s decision-making processes to strangle any Burnham challenge at birth by simply vetoing him as a candidate for parliament.

Some think they should declare that it will be an all-female shortlist for the seat. Others reckon that fix is too clunkingly obvious and it would be better to object on the grounds that it would trigger a byelection for the mayoralty, forcing Labour to spend money it can’t afford on a contest it might lose to Reform.

That’s a fair point, but vetoing him is freighted with considerable danger for the prime minister. Mr Burnham has sympathisers on the NEC who would denounce it as a democratic outrage. Lucy Powell, a Manchester MP as well as being her party’s deputy leader, yesterday warned against thwarting him, saying: “It should be up to Andy and the local members.” Sir Sadiq Khan, who has not always been his fellow mayor’s greatest fan, volunteered to “knock on some doors for him”. Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, also joined the chorus. Jo White, the leader of the Red Wall group of Labour MPs, said that a “London stitch-up” will be a “disaster”.

If Labour MPs and members make enough noisy fuss about it, there’s a chance the resolve of Number 10 will crumble, as it has before on other issues. The peril facing Sir Keir is that he looks paranoid about one of his party’s more successful figures and frit of a leadership challenge. And a challenge may happen with or without the presence of Mr Burnham in parliament because, as you may have noticed, others – including some who sit in the cabinet – are also interested in taking the prime minister’s job.

Assuming he can navigate his way through whatever roadblocks are put in his way, Mr Burnham would then have to fight and win the byelection. That is shaping up to be a three-ring circus, especially if Zack Polanski, the leader of the Greens, and Zia Yusuf of Reform UK join the fray. Though there was a chunky Labour majority at the 2024 general election, there’s really no such thing as a safe Labour seat these days. Mr Burnham’s overarching claim is that he has the personality and the ideas to turn things around for his party. If he wants to start proving that concept, the best place to begin is by testing it at the ballot box.

It is true that his path to Number 10 is an obstacle course. He has to gain clearance to be a candidate, get selected to fight the seat, triumph in the byelection, be nominated as a challenger and then win the contest against competitors who want the job every bit as much as he does. Power is rarely given; it has to be pursued. The whirligig of opportunity only comes round every so often. For sure, this is a gamble, but it is one he kind of had to take.

Photograph by Ian Vogler/ WPA Pool/Getty Images