‘I don't think he’s got three days’: Starmer’s future in the balance after McSweeney quits

Labour MPs are gearing up for a seismic week in Westminster, and backbenchers and ministers speculating that Keir Starmer may not see it out, following the resignation of his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. 

Rumours are rife that the coming days may see a high-risk ministerial reshuffle to cull some of “Morgan’s shiny stars”, as Starmer attempts to regain control of his febrile party. However, such a move would likely result in creating bad blood among those who are sacked or feel insufficiently rewarded. 

“All it would take is someone not getting a leg up to the next rung and not taking what they’re offered and the whole thing would fall down,” said one MP. On Sunday afternoon No 10 was said to be holding “crisis” talks on Microsoft Teams amid rising panic about everything from the release of more damaging documents from the Epstein files to a fully fledged leadership challenge.

McSweeney quit his Downing Street role on Sunday afternoon, issuing a statement saying he took “full responsibility” for having advised the prime minister to appoint Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to the US. 

“In public life responsibility must be owned when it matters most, not just when it is most convenient. In the circumstances, the only honourable course is to step aside,” McSweeney added. “While I did not oversee the due diligence and vetting process, I believe that process must now be fundamentally overhauled. This cannot simply be a gesture but a safeguard for the future.”

At the time the appointment was made, it was known that Mandelson had stayed at Jeffrey Epstein’s apartment after the paedophile financier’s conviction, although Starmer has always insisted he was not aware of the full extent of the relationship. 

It is understood that Starmer plans to update the country on changes being made to standard and vetting processes as early as Monday morning, although whether it will be a press conference or statement in the Commons is unclear. 

By Sunday evening, he had promoted deputy chiefs of staff Vidhya Alakeson and Jill Cuthbertson to jointly hold the  role vacated by McSweeney. A No 10 source said they “had not heard” of any further reshuffle plans. 

Some backbenchers said the resignation had acted as a “safety valve” that would buy Starmer enough time to get through the Gorton and Denton byelection on 26 February and potentially as far as the local elections in early May.

But others told The Observer that Starmer could be out within the week. “Could he last three months? I don’t think he’s even got three days,” said one senior backbencher.

“I give him three days,” said a minister. 

Matters have not been helped by Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, suggesting Starmer’s survival was no longer a given. Speaking before McSweeney’s resignation he told the BBC there was “no point” in him leaving government “if the PM stays”.

Some MPs expressed sympathy for McSweeney. One said: “I am not a Morgan fan but I do think this speaks to a broader culture of there always being someone else to blame. He gave bad advice, but ultimately Keir took the decision to accept the advice.” 

Others were relieved that the increasingly controversial aide had gone but noted that it was too late to save Starmer. “He’s tied to him,” said one senior backbencher. 

A majority of Labour MPs agree that Starmer’s days are numbered; they also agree that there can only be one change at the top within this term if they have any hope of escaping parallels with the Conservatives. Thereafter, the party consensus ends – and this may be what ends up saving Starmer for now.

Some MPs say there must be a coronation to avoid further infighting; others say this would fail to bring the party together. Wes Streeting, the health secretary, is widely acknowledged to be the frontrunner to replace Starmer, but even supporters note that his chances have become complicated by his links to Mandelson. 

Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is seen by some as a strong contender while others say it is impossible for her to run at least until her tax affairs have been settled with HM Revenue & Customs. One MP said those in Starmer’s circle were nervous that she would be “miraculously exonerated” in the next few weeks. A TikTok video of Rayner getting a fresh haircut has been doing the rounds. 

Other names include deputy leader Lucy Powell, junior minister Al Carns (only elected in 2024), former Labour leader Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, though none is seen as a viable contender.  

One backbencher summed up the sheer sense of confusion reigning over the Labour party. “The word is discombobulated, because I don’t know what the answer is. We are losing members right, left and centre, and unless [Starmer] has a lobotomy it doesn’t feel like anything will change. I never felt like this even under Corbyn and it’s having a knock-on effect with UK plc…  I am just all over the place.”

Photograph by Tayfun Salci/ZUMA Press Wire