The Makerfield paradox: why a byelection win could lock Burnham out of No 10

Andy Burnham says he wants to turn Labour into a party “solidly on the side of working-class people”. The “King of the North” is so keen to be a man of the people that when he was asked to choose his favourite biscuit a few years ago, he replied “beer and chips and gravy”. He prefers bomber jackets and T-shirts to suits and ties, and has as many views about VAR as VAT. Yesterday, as he was formally adopted as Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield byelection, he said people in the constituency had been “neglected” by Westminster for too long.

“These proud working-class communities represent the very best values of our country and they deserve so much better,” he declared. It was a message designed to appeal to the former Labour voters who have switched to Reform UK in the Greater Manchester seat. 

There is a dilemma for Burnham, however, because the people who will choose the next Labour leader are overwhelmingly middle class. According to the polling company Survation, 89% of Labour party members are graduates and 62% have a household income of over £40,000. The vast majority believe their party should prioritise winning back former voters now backing Zack Polanski and the Greens rather than those who have swung behind Nigel Farage. These days, Labour’s electoral strongholds are in metropolitan liberal cities rather than its traditional industrial heartlands. The people who will be voting in the forthcoming Labour leadership contest are more likely to prefer guacamole to mushy peas. 

It is something of a cliche in Westminster to suggest that political leaders must address two audiences – their party and the country. Burnham’s task is even harder because in order to fulfil his ambition to become prime minister he must simultaneously appeal to three disparate groups each with apparently incompatible views. First, to reach the House of Commons and get the chance to challenge Keir Starmer, he must win over the voters of Makerfield. Then, if he is to triumph in the Labour leadership contest, he must woo the party members. Finally, if he is to stay in Downing Street long enough to bring about the radical change he says he wants, he must secure the support of the public at a general election . It is a political embodiment of the “three body problem”, the physics conundrum resulting in chaos that was popularised by the science fiction author Liu Cixin in his bestselling novels. There are also the bond markets to reassure, which is why Burnham so quickly made clear that he would stick to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules. 

The approach to Europe encapsulates the challenge. On Saturday, Wes Streeting sent a planet spinning towards his rival by suggesting that he wanted to rejoin the European Union. This was catnip to the Labour Party members who are staunchly pro-European. According to a LabourList/Survation poll, 87% of Labour members want to reverse Brexit, 65% believe the Labour manifesto should pledge to rejoin the EU and 54% cent would still support going back into the EU if that meant adopting the euro. But the idea of overturning the Brexit referendum is anathema to voters in Makerfield, where 65% voted to leave. Forced on to the defensive, the mayor swiftly ruled out any ambition to go back into the EU. His supporters accused the former health secretary of trying to undermine his chances of winning the byelection, but Burnham himself has previously said that he would like to rejoin in his lifetime and that there was no point in having the “battle of ideas” that all the leadership candidates say they want if Streeting were not allowed to say what he thought. The real issue is that the mayor is struggling to juggle his many audiences.

Similar tensions are likely to emerge over immigration. Burnham and Streeting both have concerns about Shabana Mahmood’s proposed immigration reforms. It was no coincidence that the former health secretary referred to Starmer’s “island of strangers” speech in his resignation letter. “He was pretty horrified by it,” says an ally. “For people who have come here and made Britain their home they should feel that Britain will always be their home.”

Burnham has expressed his concern “about leaving people without the ability to settle” but will the mayor feel the need to temper his views in this area too in order not to alienate voters in Makerfield? 

Streeting may also use his new freedom on the back benches to raise his concerns about the Israeli attacks on Gaza, a touchstone issue for many Labour members. He has suggested that Israel is committing “war crimes” and said sanctions should be applied to punish the “rogue state behaviour”. This may feel like a distraction to Burnham who is keen to focus on “bread and butter issues” that are of more concern to voters in Makerfield. 

Burnham is so popular among party members that his “three body problem” may not matter but it is a reminder that politics is always a balancing act. The best politicians seek to broaden rather than narrow their appeal. They aim to unify, not divide, with a message that rises above tribal differences. The most successful leaders have a message that can appeal to the voters of Makerfield and Maidstone, Reform and the Greens, working class and middle class, party and country. This is the real test that anyone who wants to be Labour leader should have to pass.

Photograph by Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images