Robert Jenrick’s defection is a coup for Reform – but there are risks too

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Reform chairman Zia Yusuf says that Robert Jenrick’s defection to the party “makes it more likely that we will win the next general election”.

So what? There is no guarantee of that. Jenrick is the highest profile Conservative to jump ship to Reform, and Nigel Farage has happily accepted him into the fold. But an influx of former Tories also brings risks. Jenrick’s defection

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  escalates the battle for the right of British politics;

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  bolsters Reform’s claim to be a government-in-waiting; but

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  could undermine its insurgent image and sharpen the resolve of the Tories.

Dump him. Badenoch was reportedly alerted to Jenrick’s disloyalty by a mole inside his team, who sent screenshots of his planned resignation speech. She sacked Jenrick hours before he was due to defect, allowing her to take the initiative and undermine the big announcement.

His own trumpet. Jenrick, who was shadow justice secretary, confirmed that he had been in talks with Reform for months. A leaked defection plan described him as “the new sheriff in town” and also called him “the most dynamic politician in the Conservative party”.

That’s up for debate. But through his own efforts he was one of the most prominent. Jenrick boosted his profile with social media videos highlighting topics such as fare-jumping. Until Badenoch shored up her faltering leadership with a strong conference performance in October, Jenrick was widely tipped as favourite to replace her at the top of the Tory party.

Et tu. Jenrick’s defection is a second coup for Reform after former chancellor Nadhim Zahawi joined the party’s ranks. The third came on Sunday, when the MP Andrew Rosindell also said he was leaving the Tories. His thunder was stolen too, although not by a leaked resignation speech but a 15-year-old X user. These three defections make it increasingly unlikely that the Tories and Reform will form an election pact. Instead Reform will feel confident it can replace its rival.

Good riddance. But Tory defectors could also dampen Reform’s appeal. Reform presents itself as an insurgent force and an antidote to those who have “broken” Britain. On Sunday, Farage asked voters if they want “the failed politics of the past” or to move forward with his party. Embracing members of a tribe that just spent 15 years in office jars with this message.

Tip of the iceberg. With polls predicting a Tory wipeout at the next general election, more Conservative MPs could follow Jenrick to Reform in a bid to save their political careers. There have already been taunts that it is becoming the “Conform” party.

Sinking ship. 7 May is the date of the local elections. Both Labour and the Tories are predicted to do badly in these polls, which could trigger wavering MPs to switch loyalties. But Farage says he only wants to recruit parliamentarians willing to make the jump before then.

In the other party. Jenrick’s departure represents an opportunity for Badenoch, who claims she is “cleaning out the rubbish” from the Tories. In Jenrick she has rid herself of her most credible rival and someone who was key to pulling her party rightwards. This could allow for a reset.

Who needs enemies. Meanwhile Reform figures have downplayed past beef between their leader and new member. Jenrick previously said Farage was not “the kind of bloke you want to have running your country”. He now calls him “a lone voice of common sense”. Farage once described Jenrick as someone who adopts positions “for political gain and not out of conviction”.

What’s more… Many voters will agree. Nearly 60% believe Jenrick and other Tories defected out of personal ambition. Whether that will matter electorally remains to be seen.

Further reading: The right can’t unite. It’s now a fight to the death between the Tories and Reform

Photograph by Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images