Trump must be stopped before this war exacts a price the world can’t pay

Donald Trump is losing a war he didn’t need to start. In the space of four weeks, the US has assassinated Iran’s leader, hit tens of thousands of Iranian targets and suffered minimal casualties. And yet America has somehow found itself in a weaker position than when it began.

Iran’s military strength is nothing compared with America’s, but its leadership-in-hiding has, in the words of the former head of MI6, Alex Younger, “played a weak hand pretty well”. By targeting other countries in the region, they have caused untold economic and reputational damage to America’s Gulf allies. Crucially, by preventing ships from using the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has managed to inflict economic damage on almost every country in the world. From rising petrol prices in Germany to a lack of fertiliser in India, this has become a war with global implications. “The entire global economy has been taken hostage and we will all pay a price,” said Singapore’s foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishnan, in an interview with Reuters.

It’s worth remembering that, before the war began, the Iranian regime was at its weakest moment in its 47-year history. Its nuclear programme had been damaged, (if not “obliterated” as Trump had previously boasted), its air defences were nonexistent, and its regional proxies had been decimated. Talks over the future of its nuclear programme were going well, according to the Omani foreign minister. The regime was apparently willing to accept constraints it had never previously considered.

All that has changed. Fresh talks are unlikely – why hold negotiations with a nation that has twice used diplomacy as a cover for war preparation? If the regime survives, it will probably double-down on its nuclear programme, aware that possession of a weapon may be the only way to prevent another attack.

But it also now holds the Strait of Hormuz and will not want to give it up. Barring a short period during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, the strait has always been open. Regardless of how this war ends, Iran will know that the mere threat of laying mines or firing missiles could close the strait again in an instant. They now hope to monetise it in the same way as Egypt profits from the Suez canal.

Trump began with a simple ambition: regime change. How that would work, he wasn’t quite sure. Maybe the regime would surrender, maybe the Iranian people would rise up and overthrow their rulers. But when that failed to happen, he was clueless. His constant lies about the state of the war keep coming – “we’re winning”, “it’s over”, “Iran has agreed they will never have a nuclear weapon” – spouting whatever comes into his head, or whatever he thinks might calm the chaotic markets.

As the war drags on, Trump will become more desperate to end it. He could cave, just as he did over Greenland. Or he could double-down. Thousands of US marines are on their way to the region. Whether they are heading there purely as a threat or to carry out a mission remains unclear. The prospect of a ground invasion – and with it, a more deadly Iranian response – cannot be ruled out.

Trump has to be stopped. On Friday, echoing Vladimir Putin’s use of language over Ukraine, he admitted he was calling his war a “military conflict” for “a legal reason”, acknowledging that wars need to be approved by Congress. This would be a good time for members of Congress to remember that checks and balances are still supposed to exist in America. They should pull funding, hold hearings and consider impeachment.

Meanwhile, America’s erstwhile allies have to openly oppose him. The E3 of Britain, France and Germany has yet to meet to form a united response. Instead, they are all bending over backwards to avoid even a word of criticism. Mark Rutte has responded to Trump’s constant attacks on Nato by praising him, rather than standing up for the integrity of the other 31 members of the alliance that have not started a dumb and dangerous war.

Thugs continue to bully if they face no consequences. Trump will try to walk away from this reckless disaster in triumph, and there will be nothing to prevent him from starting another catastrophic war whenever he wants. Those suffering most are the Iranian people. Thousands Thousands, possibly tens of thousands,were murdered by the regime at the start of the year for daring to call for freedom. For almost five decades, they have lived under a brutal dictatorship. But Trump’s attacks have, so far, only tightened the regime’s grip on power.

The consequences of this war of choice will be felt throughout the world. If it ends soon, economies will rebound and infrastructure will be rebuilt. Western leaders will try to renew the rules-based order. Inside Iran, however, Trump’s actions could reverberate for generations.

Photograph by AP/Sajad Safari