Andy Burnham has been blocked from standing in the Gorton and Denton byelection, preventing the mayor of Greater Manchester from returning to parliament.
Burnham did not make it through to the longlist for candidates approved for selection by Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC). Of the 10-strong “officers’ group” of NEC members, eight-to-one voted against the former minister being selected. Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, abstained.
Many Labour MPs, including some loyal to Keir Starmer, told The Observer they believed the move would backfire on the prime minister.
One, who had been supportive of Burnham’s right to stand, said it was a “big mistake” that had “hastened his demise”.
“He should have let Andy run: Andy wins, give him a big Cabinet job – that would have bought him a year. Our poll ratings may have improved with him as a big government communicator, making it harder to unseat Keir, and giving the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) and membership less appetite to do it.”
A second MP said: “I assume Wes will be fired up for a challenge now but the centre-left are absolutely clear we won't stand for a coronation and there will be a centre-left candidate. It's just a shame it can't be Andy.”
Another Burnham supporter said the blocking was “sadly to be expected”, but that a leadership challenge was now likely to be after the 7 May local elections “at the latest”.
He added: “If we lose the byelection, it could well be March.”
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A Starmerite MP said: “Either way round everyone knows ‘the leadership’ took the decision so some backlash is the price that comes with being firm.” He said it will be "open season [on the PM] without the most popular opponent."
“He should have let Andy run: Andy wins, give him a big Cabinet job – that would have bought him a year”
“He should have let Andy run: Andy wins, give him a big Cabinet job – that would have bought him a year”
The so-called King of the North only revealed that he had applied to stand in the seat minutes after the 5pm deadline passed yesterday evening. He had received public backing from him to stand from a number of Cabinet and former Cabinet ministers including Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Lucy Powell.
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Some MPs loyal to Keir Starmer backed the move to block Burnham, noting the financial cost of running both a byelection and a mayoral election could reach £1.5m. They argued that Burnham’s sole rationale for running was to undermine the prime minister and challenge him for leadership.
But even without Burnham in parliament, there are plenty of existing MPs who are likely to do exactly that.
Streeting, the health secretary, is widely acknowledged to be the frontrunner in any such race. Even before this week, sources across the party spectrum said they were being approached by his circle for cups of tea with the Ilford North MP.
Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, is also said to be on manoeuvres, although is hamstrung by the ongoing HMRC investigation into unpaid stamp duty on her second property.
“Ange will be pushed to [stand] but isn’t a plan or a challenger properly… Wes is the one who benefits from blocking Andy, because it will unify the party around him,” said one source.
The Labour Party said in a statement: “The NEC believes that causing an unnecessary election for the position of Greater Manchester mayor would have a substantial and disproportionate impact on party campaign resources ahead of the local elections and elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd in May. Although the Party would be confident of retaining the mayoralty, the NEC could not put Labour’s control of Greater Manchester at any risk.
“Andy Burnham is doing a great job as mayor of Greater Manchester. We believe it is in the best interests of the party to avoid an unnecessary mayoral election which would use substantial amounts of taxpayers’ money and resources that are better spent tackling the cost of living crisis.
“We look forward to fighting and winning the upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton and the positive campaign ahead which will be firmly focussed on tackling the cost of living and bringing investment to the local area.”
However, blocking Burnham, who polls suggested was best placed to win against either Reform or the Green Party, now makes it harder for Labour to retain what was previously considered a safe seat.
Zia Yusuf, currently head of policy for Reform, and Green party leader Zack Polanski are both said to be eyeing the seat as their route into parliament. George Galloway, the divisive independent politician, has also expressed an interest in the seat.
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Photograph by Anthony Devlin via Getty Images