From Europe to the US, time is running out for Netanyahu’s world-view

Benjamin Netanyahu’s world just got a little smaller. Hungary’s incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, last week confirmed that the Israeli leader would be arrested and handed over to the International Criminal Court if he ever visited the country again.

The fall of Viktor Orbán has not just stymied Netanyahu’s potential travel plans. Earlier this year, Orbán blocked an EU proposal to sanction violent Israeli settlers in the West Bank that had the support of the other 26 member states. Magyar has indicated he would not do the same.

Change is afoot, and not only in Hungary. Across Europe, the mood towards Israel is shifting. Italy, until recently one of Israel’s staunchest European allies, has decided not to renew its defence cooperation agreement, while its foreign minister has criticised as “unacceptable” the attacks against civilians in Lebanon. France prevented US military flights carrying munitions to Israel through its airspace. Ireland, Spain and Slovenia last week called for the EU to suspend its trade agreement.

Two and a half years of war have fundamentally changed European attitudes towards Israel. A YouGov poll last summer showed that public support for Israel in six western European nations, including the UK, had slipped to its lowest levels since the organisation first asked the question a decade ago.

All of this will crash into the mainstream once again next month, when the Eurovision song contest takes place in Vienna. Five nations, including Ireland, have chosen to boycott the event after Eurovision turned down a request to ban Israel from taking part. Last week Slovenia’s national broadcaster announced that it would instead broadcast a series of Palestinian films and documentaries.

Israel is likely to overshadow the entire event. Expect rows over what an Italian singer said at a press conference, expect protests and allegations of antisemitism, and expect harried Eurovision officials to insist that this intensely political event about who we are as a continent is just a singing competition and no one should talk about politics.

For now, the Israeli government won’t care too much. The rhetoric may be heated, but the reality is mild. Trade is still flowing, its biggest ally – Germany – is not budging, and who knows, Israel might win Eurovision.

But across the Atlantic there is a bigger problem: Israel is also losing the US. When asked to choose, more Americans now sympathise with the Palestinians than Israelis, according to a recent Gallup poll. This is an astonishing shift from the previous 24 years when there was frequently a 40 percentage point difference in favour of Israel.

This change is already having an impact on Democratic primaries, where support for Palestine has almost become a red line issue. At a forum in January, the three Democratic candidates vying to replace Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco were asked if they agreed that Israel had committed a genocide in Gaza. Two said yes while the third, Scott Wiener, refused to respond. Such was the backlash he released a video the next day confirming he believed it was a genocide. Would-be presidential candidates with a track record of backing Israel are also fine-tuning their views. California governor Gavin Newsom has become more critical of Netanyahu, while Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, last week said both Joe Biden and Donald Trump should have “force[d] Israel’s hands to use that military aid in ways that comport with our American values”.

What sympathy existed following the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 has been washed away by an overwhelming military response that killed more than 72,000 people, led to Netanyahu being indicted on war crimes by the ICC, and his government accused of genocide by a UN commission of inquiry, human rights groups and genocide scholars.

Israel’s biggest supporters hoped there was a chance to repair some of that damage after the ceasefire deal last October. But the opportunity was squandered. In the seven months since, Israel has killed at least 792 people in Gaza and severely limited the delivery of aid. Its military has carved out a huge chunk of the territory behind the “yellow line”, preventing Palestinians from returning home and squeezing them into an ever-tighter space.

Israel has intensified its occupation of the West Bank and persuaded the US to start a war with Iran that has thrown the region into chaos and caused enormous damage to the global economy. It has launched a fresh military campaign in Lebanon, employing many of the same tactics it used in Gaza. Entire villages have been destroyed and made uninhabitable, city apartment blocks have been levelled, and health workers and journalists have been killed in frightening numbers, many of them in “double-tap” strikes.

The killing of Amal Khalil, a prominent Lebanese journalist, brought international condemnation last week. Her colleagues said she was killed after a sustained attack and her rescuers were also targeted. Lebanon’s prime minister described it as a “war crime”. Israel has repeatedly denied targeting journalists or health workers.

Elections will be held in Israel at some stage in the coming months. Even if Netanyahu fails to hold on to power, it’s likely that his successor follows his strategy. But I don’t believe it’s overly optimistic to imagine this could be the last hurrah for the Netanyahu world view.

The next American president is unlikely to be an ally and Europe is stumbling in the same direction. The genocide case being considered by the International Court of Justice could have a profound impact, opening up the possibility of a real reckoning inside Israel.

At some stage, surely, enough Israelis have to acknowledge that the man who styled himself “Mr Security” has brought his country the exact opposite.

For those of us who still believe in a two-state solution – a peaceful and secure Israel alongside a peaceful and secure Palestine – these are dark days. But that doesn’t mean we should let go of hope.

Photograph by Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images