Trump promised to help Iran’s protesters. Here’s what he can actually do

‘HELP IS ON ITS WAY” Donald Trump promised protesters in Iran as the regime launched a violent crackdown that has killed thousands.

Days on, the US president has yet to come to their rescue, and on Wednesday the prospect of US intervention appeared to recede. Speaking at the White House, Trump said he had been assured that the killing was stopping and the authorities in Iran had no plan to carry out executions.

It is unclear whether the shift in tone aims to catch Iran off guard or reflects a realisation of the limits of what the US can do to assist Iranians in their struggle against the regime.

“There’s a lot the US can do, but there’s a much smaller subset of things the US can do where it knows the consequences will be beneficial,” said Alan Eyre, the US state department’s former Persian-language spokesman and a fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Military

Trump returned to office vowing to extricate the US from conflicts overseas, but has proved ready to deploy American power in pursuit of his foreign policy aims – and personal interests. Last year, the US launched direct strikes against Iran for the first time since the revolution that led to the creation of the Islamic Republic more than four decades ago.

Those strikes hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, but it is less clear what the US could target now.

“There’s nothing you can drop a bomb on in one limited strike that’s going to have a determinative influence on how effectively Iran suppresses its own people,” said Eyre.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Basij militia have been crushing protests across the country. Many of their facilities are located in urban areas, which means targeting them could risk killing civilians. Protests have become more scattered and sporadic as the crackdown intensifies. The value of such a strike would be largely symbolic, signalling to the protesters that the US is on their side.

Days before striking Iran last year, Trump said he knew where Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was hiding. “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least for now,” he wrote on Truth Social.

That option may be back on the table now. But removing the ailing and elderly cleric wouldn’t solve the problem. Khamenei has been less involved in the day-to-day running of affairs since the war with Israel. And the regime would most likely close ranks, possibly choosing a reformist to succeed Khamenei, easing pressure and prolonging its survival.

Meanwhile, military action to support the protests would reinforce the Islamic Republic’s narrative that they are a US or Israeli plot.

The US could pursue a more sustained campaign of airstrikes, though Trump has shown little appetite for protracted engagement and the unintended consequences would multiply.

Internet

As the regime launched its bloody crackdown, it disabled the internet to prevent protesters from communicating with each other – and the outside world.

The US and other western countries could help protesters by providing them with the means to get around the blackout. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has already dropped its fees to help those able to access Starlink, but the number of terminals in Iran is limited. Flooding Iran with Starlink terminals would help, said Evan Firoozi, executive director of NetFreedom Pioneers, which has smuggled 300 Starlinks into Iran in recent years.

At the same time, western countries could seek to hamper regime communications and deprive it of its loudspeakers. “While everybody is cut off from the internet, Ali Khamenei posts on [X] and threatens both protesters and the western world,” said Firoozi.

Protesters also need VPNs – virtual private networks – and other privacy tools so they can access the internet freely, Firoozi said, adding that one option would be to enable emergency direct-to-mobile services that allow phone users to communicate even when the internet is down. During the wildfires in California, Apple and Android provided those services to overcome an internet shutdown.

“It is a low-bandwidth communication – it’s only text-based – but it still allows us to get in touch,” said Firoozi.

Economic pressure

Iran is already one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world.

In response to the killing of protesters, the Trump administration threatened a 25% tariff on imports from any country doing business with the regime.

The UK announced “full and further sanctions” targeting finance, energy, transport, software and other significant industries. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said the EU would “swiftly” propose further sanctions on those responsible for the repression of demonstrations in Iran.

The US could further tighten the screws on Tehran with an economic blockade of the kind imposed on Venezuela. But such measures take time to bite, and the US lacks the naval assets to enforce such an embargo.

It is also unclear whether they would weaken the regime. Over decades, Iran’s leadership has learned how to absorb economic pressure and shift the cost of sanctions on to society.

Diplomacy

The US has few diplomatic levers to pull in support of the protesters; engaging with the regime would only alleviate pressure on the leadership they are seeking to overthrow. Iranian officials have sought to open a dialogue with the Trump administration to buy time while they grapple with the unrest.

The US could encourage countries that still have diplomatic ties with Tehran to expel Iranian diplomats, further isolating the regime. It could also coordinate diplomatic action with other western allies.

Even if the protesters could dislodge the regime, there is no credible homegrown opposition to fill the vacuum. Absent a viable alternative to the regime, Iran risks fracturing and tumbling into chaos.

As Iranians call for help, the best way to aid them may not be bold intervention, but restraint.

“You have to have a keen sense of the limitations of what we can do,” Eyre said.

Photograph by Vahid Salemi/AP Photo