A Mancunian golden age? Burnham will hand his successor a city on the rise

Andy Burnham’s success in the Makerfield byelection ended his term as mayor of Greater Manchester. On 30 July the region’s 3 million people will go to the polls to choose his replacement to serve the remaining two years of what would have been Burnham’s full term.

For all the talk about whether politicians are good or bad at a particular job, a more important qualification might be a leader who meets what the moment demands. When Burnham was elected, the Greater Manchester mayoralty was brand new and had few hard powers. This came as something of a shock to Burnham, who briefly behaved as the “minister for the north-west”, according to one former colleague, before realising he was in fact the chair of a committee of 10 council leaders, all of whom had more policy levers than he did.

As it turned out, having few hard powers suited Burnham. He proved adept at bringing different agencies together to solve problems, for example by convening local officials from the police, health service and councils to bring down the number of people sleeping rough (the numbers fell fast and have since risen again). Burnham’s skill set – friendly critics see him as a peerless persuader and a middling administrator – made him the perfect mayor for this moment and other big cities have struggled without a high-profile equivalent.

The next phase arguably requires a different figure. One of Burnham’s significant achievements was negotiating a so-called “trailblazer” devolution deal with the government, which gives Greater Manchester new powers over transport and skills. Crucially, the deal – which extends the same powers to the West Midlands combined authority – means Burnham’s successor will have a “single settlement” funding pot. That may sound dull, but it’s been a holy grail of devolution because it gives the mayor more autonomy over spending money rather than overseeing a number of restricted funding packages, all earmarked for specific projects.

His successor will inherit a role that feels a significant step closer to that of a mayor in the US, with real powers and budgets attached. They will need to be detail-focused and comfortable with weighing the trade-offs of spending less on one thing to free up money for another. Both the Bee Network and the Metrolink tram systems will require skilful oversight to avoid running out of money.

Crucially, they may have significant new powers and investment coming their way. If Burnham remains consistent in government with the views he expressed in his book Head North he will aim to implement a truly “federal UK” and “the fullest possible version of devolution in England”.

Anything close to that would be transformative. The next mayor of Greater Manchester may be less famous than Burnham but could be much more powerful, thanks to having him in No 10.

Who might that mayor be? For weeks, the only name in the frame to be Labour’s candidate has been Bev Craig, the leader of Manchester city council who grew up on an estate just outside Belfast and has established a reputation as an unfussy and pragmatic successor to Sir Richard Leese, the architect of modern Manchester. Craig has recognised the newfound power that her city has when negotiating with would-be investors (“Manchester’s hand has shifted, and it’s my job to make sure we properly play that hand,” she told me when she took the job in 2022) and has used it to build more social housing, while maintaining a permissive planning regime.

The new supplementary vote (SV) system has arrived just in time for Labour, increasing the likelihood that their candidate wins even if more voters choose Reform as their first preference. But that thesis relies on Green voters reliably picking Labour with their second preference (Green councillor Geraldine Coggins will be their candidate) to keep out Reform, which isn’t guaranteed given Labour’s unpopularity, particularly among Muslim voters.

Reform and Restore will hope the campaign is dominated by the subject of grooming gangs. On Friday, The Mill – Manchester’s online newspaper, which I edit – revealed that Marlon Scott West, the father of grooming gang victim Scarlett West and a high-profile campaigner against child sexual exploitation, will be on the ballot for Restore Britain. Even after falling short in Makerfield, Reform could well get the most votes in the first round, but the party knows that to elect a mayor it has to pick an outstanding candidate, after bungling its selections in Gorton & Denton and Makerfield.

Whatever happens, don’t expect Burnham’s triumphant return to London on an Avanti West Coast service to Euston to take the political spotlight off Manchester just yet. With the king gone, the next phase could be even more interesting.

Joshi Herrmann is the founder and editor of The Mill (manchestermill.co.uk)

Photograph by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images