How Reform could buy Makerfield byelection

The Makerfield byelection, which Andy Burnham hopes to contest, could become “the wild west” of campaign financing, with experts warning that Reform may redeploy the same big-spending tactics it used to pick up seats across the country in the local elections.

Political parties theoretically have, since 2023, been subject to a spending limit of £180,000 over the short campaign period of a byelection, almost four times the equivalent limit per constituency during a general election.

Until now that limit has been considered sufficient. However, quirks in electoral law mean that if a party campaigns on a national message, there is potentially no limit to how much money it can throw at a byelection. Parties may also be exempt from recording how much they have spent during the campaign, if it is categorised as national. Campaigners are now seeking clarification from the Electoral Commission on both points.

As The Observer reported last week, it is thought Reform – which has received £20m in donations since the last general election, including £12m from Christopher Harborne – used this approach ahead of the May local elections by primarily focusing their campaign adverts on Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage.

“It’s the highest stakes ever,” said Shaun Roberts, director of campaigns and digital at Unlock Democracy. "This one will have to have more scrutiny than byelections in the past, but even then you won’t know whether they are exploiting [this loophole] at all until potentially after the election… The next five weeks could be the wild west because there isn’t anyone policing the election as it happens.”

Steve Goodrich from Transparency International said: “This is going to be a fiercely fought election that won't be cheap. Those contesting the poll will need a lot of money very quickly, putting pressure on parties and their candidates in a dash for cash.”

One campaigns expert who asked to remain anonymous added: “I'd expect [Reform] to push the rules on what can be excluded from the byelection expense limit much more heavily than other parties have, because they have a lot of cash and it’s a big contest… in practice the limits on spending may turn out to be extremely weak.”

A Labour MP said he had “grave concerns” about Reform using this approach. “All the campaign literature I saw during the locals was national, and using paid delivery, which is very expensive… We saw them do it in [the Gorton and Denton byelection], and saw them do it in the locals so I have grave concerns they’ll do it again here.”

Figures for Gorton and Denton have not yet been released, but it is understood that the Greens spent more than £173,000, underlining how close to the spending limit other parties have come. Reform did not respond to requests for comment.

Photograph by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images